The Job Numbers That You're Not Hearing About

If you asked the average person on the street how the Economy was doing, what do you think his response would be? Probably negatively. Economists call this a late indicator, meaning that by the time the average joe on the street changes his perception of the economy, it is because the economy has already been performing well for quit sometime.

This is the case today. For example the unemployment rate in the United States is at about the same level that it was when Bill Clinton was running for re-election, and Bill Clintons economy didn't have 9/11 and two wars behind it. So it is clear that with all things considered, this economy is doing great.

Than whats with all the bad news lately? Well USA today has an article putting them in context. The article states,

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently snuck out a telling confession beneath everyone's radar: Its flagship payroll survey is likely undercounting hundreds of thousands of jobs.


In his July 20 testimony to Congress, Greenspan cited measures from the payroll and household surveys. Then the Federal Reserve, led by Greenspan, voted unanimously to raise interest rates. It said the economy is "poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion" and noted that labor-market conditions continue to improve.



Update: For those that would like more on this topic, Arnold Kling, Phd in Economics from MIT, discusses the supposed 'Middle Class Squeeze" and various issues dealing with the Economy here.

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